The Saskatchewan Water Security Agency's (WSA) spring runoff forecast for March was released on March 11, and it continues to project near-normal to below normal runoff levels for southeast Saskatchewan, and the rest of the province.
"Fall precipitation in 2013 in the Saskatchewan portion of the Souris River basin was well below normal," the March report states. "Meteorological monitoring in the basin indicates cumulative 2014 winter precipitation is generally below normal across the Saskatchewan portion of the Souris River Basin."
Field staff report a generally average to below average snowpack.
Below normal runoff is projected based on the conditions of March 1, assuming average precipitation is received from March 1 until spring melt.
As for the three reservoirs in the Estevan area, Boundary Dam was at an elevation of 560.12 metres on March 1. The best estimate inflow forecast is that Boundary will fill to its full supply level (FSL) of 560.8 metres.
Rafferty Dam was at an elevation of 549.45 metres on March 1. Barring above normal precipitation going forward, or a rapid melt, the best estimate is that inflows would only fill Rafferty to 549.8 metres, or seven tenths of a metre below its FSL.
Alameda Dam was at an elevation of 560.98 metres on March 1. Barring above normal precipitation going forward, or a rapid melt, the best estimate is that inflows would only fill Alameda to 561.5 metres, or half a metre below its FSP.
Other areas of the province will be experiencing much higher levels of runoff. The outlook ranges from well above normal in the Prince Albert area, to below normal in the southwest corner.