Above normal runoff is expected in southeast Saskatchewan and most other areas of the province, according to the Water Security Agency's February forecast, which was released on February 12.

“The spring runoff is impacted by a variety of factors like moisture conditions in the fall, snow accumulation in the winter as well as the rate of melt and amount of rainfall,” Water Security Agency Minister Ken Cheveldayoff said. “The Water Security Agency is paying close attention to these factors and will assess the situation as we approach spring.”   

The last half 2012 saw below normal rainfall which left most of the agricultural areas in Saskatchewan with relatively dry conditions going into the winter season. To date, there has been above normal winter precipitation in the province, and there is well above average water equivalent in the snowpack for this time of year.

The estimated water equivalent in the snowpack on February 1 is generally 150 per cent to 200 per cent of the average for this time of year.

If the precipitation conditions going forward remain the same as their historical averages, there will be an above average spring runoff this year. If the above normal winter precipitation trend continues, 2013 runoff will likely be well above average.

The Water Security Agency will be updating this forecast in March with the latest available information.