It’s amazing the difference that 12 months and low potash revenues can make.
Last year’s provincial budget was a celebration of Saskatchewan’s growth and its new leadership. While other provincial governments were forecasting a large deficit, the Saskatchewan government handed down a balanced budget – a legitimate balanced budget that didn’t need a transfer from reserves.
Two long-standing issues were resolved: the education portion of property tax and revenue sharing with municipalities. And spending promises were made for highways, schools and hospitals, including a new children’s hospital for Saskatoon.
Then the reality of an economic recession hit.
Potash revenues were projected to be $1.9 billion. But the government wound up owing money for potash. Nobody could have predicted the potash revenue disaster, but it will go down as a gross financial miscalculation.
A transfer from reserves was needed to “balance” the budget. The children’s hospital was among the projects to be delayed.
This year’s budget appears to be an exercise in restraint. There have been cuts to the civil service. While there are spending increases for health and education, other departments will see funding decrease, including education and highways.
The Saskatchewan Communications Network will soon be off the air. While the television station did showcase some unique, made-in-Saskatchewan programming, ratings weren’t high enough to justify its survival.
The civil service will be reduced. Some people will lose their jobs, but most of the cuts will come through attrition from retirements and departures.
And the final phase of education property tax reform and municipal revenue sharing increases will be delayed until next year.
While the government trumpets it as a balanced budget, it’s not a balanced budget. The budgets weren’t balanced when the NDP used rainy day fund transfers several times between 2001 and 2007. And this year’s budget won’t be balanced, either.
So does this budget represent a lesson learned from last year’s over-optimism in the face of a global recession? Or is it an overreaction to last year’s mistake? After all, potash revenues can’t be as bad as last year, and the price of oil is much strong than it was at this time last year.
Regardless, the government knew that they couldn’t spend like they did last year. Restraint was going to be needed. If the price of oil increases and the potash market makes a comeback, then the government will certainly be able to reinstate some of the funding that has been slashed.
The Saskatchewan Party government is still in the midst of a honeymoon of sorts with the public. Many Saskatchewan people loves Brad Wall’s charisma and energy. But if the government had made the same mistake as they did last year’s budget, then the honeymoon would have been over.










